Everyone knows that there is no love lost between President Trump and Canada’s failed PM, Justin Trudeau. During Trump’s first term, Trudeau never missed an opportunity to thumb his nose at the Donald and badmouth him behind his back. Sadly, such passive aggressive malice was typical of Prince Justin; but Trudeau has now resigned, and his Liberal Party, with its disastrous policies, is historically unpopular. Mark Carney, who has never so much as been elected to the high office of local dogcatcher, is now the anointed PM. There will be an federal election this year (we hope), possibly as soon as two months hence; and in Canada, as in America, elections have consequences.
Under the Steven Harper government, Canada was able to weather the subprime economic crisis better than any other G-7 country. During the present economic crisis, which is largely government engineered, Canada is doing the worst. Regardless of the merits of Trump’s case against Canada for not securing the border, the trade war which he threatened, then paused, then renewed has thrown a wrench into the works of political jostling in advance of Canada’s upcoming election—and presumably not in ways that we would have wanted.
Although Canadian conservatives are not exactly like their American cousins, there remains much common ground between them. Both value lower taxes, secure borders, peace through strength, family values, individual liberty, and strong market economies. Regardless of who is in power on either side of the border, Canada and America are natural friends, married by geography, culture, and a shared history. It is only in the Trudeau era that America has become regarded as an enemy to Canada. This is an aberration and a distortion.
Nor is it just the Liberals beating this drum. NDP Jagmeet Singh, who is himself banned from visiting his home country of India since 2013 due to his connections to Khalistani terrorists, has called for Donald Trump to be prohibited from entering Canada to attend the upcoming G7 Summit. Elizabeth May, leader of the radical left Green Party, has called Trump a ‘convicted rapist’ and a ‘Nazi’. Former Deputy Prime Minister, Christa Freeland, declared that if she became Prime Minister, she would form military alliances with European nuclear powers and have them place nuclear missiles strategically along the 49th parallel—aimed due South!
Trump’s tariffs certainly have set off a familiar chorus reminiscent of the TSD (Trump Derangement Syndrome) used so effectively by U.S. Democrats and major media ever since Donald descended that golden staircase to announce his first Presidential campaign a decade ago. The real problem is that no one knows for certain how serious Trump is about these tariffs, or annexation of Canada into the U.S.
Across the board, tariffs are a blunt instrument. Canada is not Mexico. Their previous President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, once boasted about the millions of illegals aliens residing in the U.S. He encouraged them to vote Democrat. By exploiting America’s welfare system, Mexicans residing in the U.S. are annually able to send $63B back home to their families. That is a huge boost to the Mexican economy, on top of their $140B trade surplus with America.
No Canadian PM has yet bragged that millions of indigent Canadians are living in the U.S. and using its welfare resources to free up $ to send back home. Canada has its own social welfare network and neither needs or wants to send Canadians to exploit the American system. On the contrary, the vast majority of people moving to the U.S. from Canada are legal immigrants. Canada has for decades lost its best and brightest to America. Almost everyone in Canada knows someone who moved south of the border to help make America great. Elon Musk, Wayne Gretzky, Jordan Peterson, and even Kamala Harris—who attended high school in Winnipeg—are but a few examples. This brain drain began in the 1960’s and continues to this day.
So how do Trump’s tariffs impact the next federal election in Canada?
Trump’s tariffs are viewed by Canadian politicians as a national emergency, and yet Parliament remains prorogued. If Trudeau or Carney were actually “Right” or “Honourable”, they would have ended prorogation, rather than going to court to have it upheld by Liberal appointed Judges. They would have instead recalled the House of Commons into an emergency session to have a national debate about how to respond. This did not happen though, because this crisis is of the Liberal’s own making. Thus, instead of a healthy debate about how we got here, Canada was instead treated to a war of the pressers between Trudeau and Poilievre.
These pressers took place in an atmosphere of existential crisis. For any nation, the threat of war, even a trade war, naturally causes opposing political parties to close ranks—every party trying to outdo the other at sounding patriotic. Nor did it help that Trump’s tariffs came hard on the heels of his plan to annex Canada. Thus, in these duelling pressers, Poilievre must have felt compelled to announce his own retaliatory dollar-for-dollar trade tariffs, removal of inter-provincial trade barriers (over which he has no jurisdiction), engaging with alternative trading partners, etc. Predictably, Poilievre was unable to go Mano a Mano with Trudeau about what actually reduced Canada to this sad state of affairs.
The next election is as crucial to Canada as was the recent one in America. It is too early to tell what effect Trump’s rhetoric is having upon the political climate in Canada, but it cannot be helping Poilievre’s prospects. Just as in the U.S., Canadian mainstream media have long demonized Trump and his call to make Canada the 51st state has angered many Canadians.
As expected, recent polls show the Liberals spiking in popularity. Erosion of the CPC lead is not a good thing. If Canada hopes to restore its dignity as a nation, the CPC needs to not only win but be able to form a majority government. Anything less would be a Pyrrhic victory.
This crisis seems entirely unnecessary. Trade between Canada and America is on a fairly level playing field. Canada’s wages and workplace safety are equivalent to that in the U.S.
NAFTA was renegotiated during Trump’s first term by a tough American negotiator. If Trump chose to revisit those negotiations, then Canada could not refuse.
This is election season in Canada and by appealing to patriotism, the Liberals hope to get a boost in the polls. In that sense, the Liberals are attempting to copy the Democrats in “never letting a crisis go to waste.” Meanwhile, Trump insists that America is self-sufficient and that he does not need to trade with Canada, forcing Canadian leaders to do likewise.
Traditionally heavy trading between the two countries did not arise out of happenstance, nor is it based upon mere convenience. It has greatly benefitted both nations, as does all fair trade, and helped bind us as natural friends. It is thus tragic that this relationship is being harmed by baseless politics.
So what then, you might ask, is Trump really up to here?
And why are Canadian politicians drawing us into a trade war with our closest ally?
The Trump Administration appears serious about bolstering the defence of North America—ranging from Panama to the Arctic Ocean. In addition to his repeated comments about annexing Canada, Trump has made clear that he will not allow China to control the strategic Panama Canal or tolerate the Communist dictatorship’s aggressive economic interference in Mexico as a back door to America.
Nearly a month prior to his January inauguration, Trump revived the idea of U.S. buying Greenland; and he quite reasonably demands that Canada contribute more seriously to NATO and defence of our continent. For all his bellicosity, Trump’s instincts concerning military security are sound and rooted in what appears to be a genuine desire to avoid a hot war.
In the north, Russia has come to dominate the High Arctic thorough a chain of bases supporting an immense fleet of icebreakers, ice-capable cargo vessels, and warships— including a massive nuclear powered battle cruiser. In contrast to Canada’s two aging heavy diesel powered icebreakers, the Russian Federation has more than 30 icebreakers, many of them nuclear powered. We also see China exerting influence in the Arctic, despite having no Arctic shoreline. China’s interest in the Arctic is strategic, focusing upon global transit routes and vital resources, and its projection of influence into the Arctic is enabled by Russia’s Northern Fleet.
Inattentive North Americans were shocked to learn recently that China has also quietly gained profound influence over the vital Panama Canal. This came about through Panama’s participation in China’s imperialistic Belt & Road Initiative, and by allowing a CCP linked Hong Kong based company to operate strategic seaports at each end of the Canal.
The Trump Administration quite justifiably considers all of this to be an intolerable set of security threats. Trump therefore accused Panama of violating terms of the 1979 treaty that ceded control over the Canal to Panama. The Panamanian President, Jose Raul Mulino, buckled instantly, promising to exit China’s Belt & Road Initiative and to closely audit port operations. More such concessions are certainly foreseeable.
With Greenland, Trump seeks to secure North America’s northern flank while improving access to important mineral resources. Greenland dominates the eastern exit from the Northwest Passage through Canada’s High Arctic, as well as forming one end of the strategic Greenland-Iceland-UK gap controlling access to the North Atlantic. Critics are wrong to dismiss as loopy Trump’s idea to buy Greenland. The U.S. officially made just such an offer following WWII. Trump revived it during his first term. At the very least, we can anticipate an increased U.S. military and commercial presence in Greenland to keep China and Russia n check. The U.S. already operates a Space Force Base at Pituffik in northern Greenland. It is a sprawling base which might well be expanded.
Throughout our history, Canada has effectively outsourced much of our national defence.
First Great Britain, then the U.S. Despite our nation’s strong performance during times of actual warfare, the tendency to get others to help defend our homeland is an old, ingrained habit, predating Confederation itself. The decades long disintegration of Canada’s once proud military has been disturbing and even heartbreaking for many Canadians; but this neglect has reflected deliberate public policy under successive governments, and Canadians let it happen by electing governments indifferent if not hostile to national defence.
Now, the Trump Administration demands that Canada contribute for real, on three main things:
(1) Secure its land border with the U.S. and its international ports of entry against terrorism and illegal drugs;
(2) Expeditiously raise its defence spending to 2%of GDP, just as Canada promised but failed to do for many years; &
(3) Create a strategy and capacity to help defend the continent’s northern flank, something Canada should have undertaken years ago.
How might this be achieved?
Under the predatory gaze of Russia’s mighty Northern Fleet and Air Force, bolstered by its new Chinese allies, Canada’s Arctic sits largely naked. If Canada does not step up and defend its immensely rich Arctic Archipelago, then it stands to lose it, exposing the entire continent to the risk of invasion by foreign enemies.
Canada’s military rebuilding process must urgently address the Northern geopolitical issue.
Announcing procurement of equipment or even displaying its delivery in photo-ops is always exciting and newsworthy; and it is important, but not enough. Building support bases is hard, expensive work, but that is where we must begin to live up to our NATO obligations.
Besides bigger and better operating locations in the Far North and High Arctic—only one such base has ever been started and is years behind schedule—Canada will need a large, fully capable, comprehensive support base for northern operations, located on a deep-water harbour connected to continental roads and railways. The northernmost such location is the Port of Sydney, Nova Scotia. The new Canadian northern support base would become the home port of Canadian and U.S. Coast Guard vessels, as well as ships of other Arctic-facing NATO nations such as Denmark and Norway.
Whatever their personal feelings about Donald Trump, Canadians need to set aside their emotions to at least recognize that the President is deadly serious in his foreign policy goals, especially securing the regions surrounding America; and our Federal Government must in turn accept that Trump clearly expects action.
Canada’s leaders are staring down a barrel, and it is loaded with Trump’s tariff threats. As of 13 March 2025, Trump has the Canadian economy in his crosshairs, with 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum already in effect, and a broader wave looming April 2nd that could slam everything from cars to maple syrup.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford are talking tough. Carney, who whose ascension to the office of PM was celebrated publicly by WEF Czar Klaus Schwab, is preaching a ‘hockey style’ victory. Ford is flirting with power export cuts—but the numbers tell a different story. Canada is outgunned, outmatched, and teetering on a cliff after a rough decade of disastrous Trudeau regime economic policies. A trade war with the U.S. simply is not a winnable fight, and the data backs that up.
Consider the raw math. The U.S. absorbs 75% of our exports. $680B in goods last year, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures. That is 67% of Canada’s already sagging GDP. Canada’s slice of U.S. trade barely nudges 1%. Trump is quite right when he says that the U.S. does not need to trade with Canada. It is a 20-1 mismatch, a David vs. Goliath tale where Goliath has a tank and we have no slingshot. Trump’s latest moves—25% on metals now, and on cars next—could shrink Canada’s GDP by 2.6%, or $78B, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. That equates to $1900.00 per Canadian annually, a gut punch to a working class already stretched to their very limits. Meanwhile, the U.S. might lose $1.6%of GDP, $467B, or $1300 per American; but that is nothing for an economy that is far less trade reliant at 24% of total GDP.
Nor is Canada strolling into this brawl fresh. A decade under Justin Trudeau left scars: wages flatlined since 2016 (per Statistics Canada), while household debt hit 184% of disposable income—last in the G7, according to the OECD. Home prices in Toronto and Vancouver, where anti-Trump rallies are now planned, devour 70% of median income, and economic growth since 2019 ranks dead last amongst 50 developed nations, per IMF data.
50% of Canadians cannot cover a $200 emergency and 40% live hand to mouth. A recent Nanos poll found that 70% of us think that Canada is broken, and that 42% are plotting an exit. This is a nation limping, not leaping into the ring with Trump’s America.
Trump’s playbook is not new. He has wielded tariffs as a cudgel before. In 2018, he hit Canadian steel with 25% and aluminum with 10%; Trudeau retaliated and both sides felt the sting until a 2019 deal settled the dispute. This time, Trump is citing fentanyl and border security. In fairness, U.S. Customs data shows that Canada’s share of fentanyl seizures dropped 97% from December 2024 to January 2025–down to one half ounce. Fentanyl is admittedly a serious concern. The synthetic opioid is up to 50x stronger than heroin and 100x stronger than morphine.
The real driver here is leverage. Trump has it and Canada does not. The USMCA shields some trade—34% of our exports dodge current tariffs—but April’s escalation could torch 120,000 automobile factory jobs in Ontario alone, according to industry estimates. The Federal government will only compound the economic impact felt by working class Canadians by also hiking the hated carbon tax by 19% in April.
Carney and Ford could play smarter, not tougher. Canada has cards to play: border security tweaks, fentanyl crackdowns, and removal of our own trade barriers like the 270% dairy tariff that so irks Trump. We could hand him political wins that cost us little and help Canadians—cheaper milk, less red tape—while avoiding the existential crisis. Instead, Canadian politicians across the country, even Smith in AB and Moe in SK, are posturing.
Carney’s “we will win” bravado ignores the math. Ford’s brief electricity tariff on Michigan was an ill conceived stunt he had to scrap after one call from Howard Lutnick. This is cheap theatre, not strategy, and it is burning valuable time when there is not a moment to be lost for Canada.
The fallout is already brewing. Inflation in Canada is ticking up. TD Economics pegs a 2.5-3% spike if tariffs continue, and the Bank of Canada might slash interest rates by 50-75 basis points to soften the blow, only weakening our plummeting dollar even further. Auto plants, steel mills, small businesses, and even farmers are bracing for a squeeze. An election is coming in Canada, and voters might punish this gamble, but Poilivere and the CPC keep fumbling their pitch. Meanwhile, we are stuck with leaders betting on Trump’s bluff—except that he is not bluffing. He has proven that.
Trump recently responded to retaliatory tariffs by declaring a national emergency on electricity in the U.S. and doubled tariffs on aluminum and steel from Canada. He threatened to permanently shut down the Canadian auto sector. As the president ramps up his trade war, he said the only thing to make his tariffs stop is for Canada to become the 51st state.
The U.S. stock market dropped over 500 points as nervous investors worry about a potential recession. Trump declared on Truth Social that ‘based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on electricity coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an additional 25% tariff, to 50% on all steel and aluminum coming into the United States from Canada, one of the highest tariffing nations anywhere in the world.’
“I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area.”
Trump’s fury continued in a second post to his Truth Social account, where he warned that Canada will pay a historically big ‘financial price’ for its electricity tariff. Many states in the Northeast buy supplemental energy from Ontario. He raged:
“Why would our Country allow another Country to supply us with electricity, even for a small area? Who made these decisions, and why?…And can you imagine Canada stooping so low as to use ELECTRICITY, that so affects the life of innocent people, as a bargaining chip and threat?…They will pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in History Books for many years to come!…If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada.”
He closed with another offer to drop all tariffs if Canada agrees to become the 51st state:
“The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.”
There are yet more targets on Canadians. Those who are in the U.S. for 30 days or longer will soon need to register their information with the U.S. government, ABC News reported. They will also have to be fingerprinted starting 11 April, according to a new government regulation posted on 12 March 2025. Trump’s ramping up of the trade war with Canada comes in response to Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs imposed last week. He has argued that these tariffs are a transitional measure, but told Fox News that he does not rule out a potential recession
“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of—it takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I don’t—I think it should be great for us. I mean, I think it should be great.”
Continuing his combative rhetoric towards Canada since retaking office, Trump recently accused outgoing PM Justin Trudeau of using the drama surrounding the tariff war to try and ‘stay in power’.
Trudeau announced his resignation in January, but in an explosive recent call with Trump, the President claimed that he tore into Trudeau:
“Justin Trudeau, of Canada, called me to ask what could be done about Tariffs. I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped. He said that it’s gotten better, but I said ‘That’s not good enough.”
In his victory speech upon being selected to replace Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Mark Carney vowed to take on Trump:
“America is not Canada, and Canada never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape, or form…We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves.”
This is not a trade war Canada can win. It is an existential test that we may not survive. The data is clear: economic fragility, lopsided trade, and a foe who thrives upon chaos. Carney and Ford need to ditch the swagger, cut a deal, and save what is left. Pride is a luxury that Canadians can ill afford right now.
